Net Carbon Deficit in 2023; Six Years Until Global Warming Passes 1.5°C
The Global Carbon Budget Office, led by Prof. Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter, England, published its Global Carbon Budget 2024 report. Similar to how a company’s budget determines how much money a company can spend before it runs out of funds, a carbon budget represents how much carbon dioxide can be further emitted before no more can be added to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The carbon budget is given by the net sum of carbon emissions (such as from fossil fuels) and carbon sinks (carbon absorbed from the atmosphere), both of which can be naturally occurring or caused by humans. The Global Carbon Budget team estimates that there is a 50% chance that “global warming will consistently pass 1.5°C in six years,” with the decarbonization of the world’s energy system not possible within this timeframe. Some of the key points from the global carbon budget are provided below.
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were about 419.3 parts per million in 2023, 51% higher than pre-industrial levels. Carbon dioxide has accumulated at about 10 times faster during the Industrial Era than any time in the past 66 million years.
In 2023, China had the largest share of global carbon dioxide emissions at 32.2%, followed by the US (13.3%), India (8.3%), and the European Union (6.8%).
The total carbon dioxide emissions were about 40.9 billion tons per year in 2023, of which 37.2 billion tons were from fossil fuels and 3.7 billion tons were from land use changes (such as deforestation).
Meanwhile, the total carbon dioxide sinks were about 19 billion tons per year, of which 10.6 billion tons were from ocean sinks and 8.4 billion tons were from land sinks.
“From January 2025, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2°C has respectively been reduced to 235 GtCO2 (6 years at 2024 emissions levels), 585 GtCO2 (14 years) and 1,110 GtCO2 (27 years).”
Reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 would still result in additional cumulative emissions of 530 gigatons of carbon dioxide between 2025 and 2050. This would be close to the 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.7°C.
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